I’m reworking our lifecycle clock for fashion tees after a TikTok-driven 3‑week spike collapsed, and our sell-through stalled at 52% by week 5. If you target about 70% by week 6 on a 12‑week plan, do you trigger first markdown when velocity drops below 0.7x plan for two weeks, or wait for inventory aging >60 days to protect margin?
After a 3‑week TikTok pop, I’ll trigger a surgical first cut at “0.7x for two weeks” but only on stranded sizes/colors (XS/XXL or off‑trend prints) and only in doors already aging >35 days, keep core winners full price, then recheck against your week‑6 70% gate. Small caveat: I’ll test a Thu–Sun micro‑promo first to see if velocity snaps back before wider cuts, and I’d watch size‑level sell‑through pre‑trigger since that’s where most of the margin protection lives.
I’d run a 48-hour geo price test before locking a chainwide cut: take 10% in two lowest-velocity markets and see if lift tops 1.3x. If you’re at 52% in week 5 on a 12-week plan and aiming 70% by week 6, no lift = take 15% now rather than waiting for ‘60 days’; do you have geo-test tooling or need to simulate with a code-only promo to protect AUR?
Anchor it to weeks-of-supply, not age — @alloc_june what’s WOS on core M/L in the top 20 doors? If forward cover is >5 weeks at current ROS and you’re under ‘0.7x’ for about 10 days post-spike, take a shallow 10% plus a 2-for-$X fence to drive units without nuking AUR on a 12-week plan, and pack-and-hold 15–20% of off-prints for a later drop instead of cutting chainwide now.
I’d tie the first cut to demand decay, not just age: if trailing 14‑day units are down >40% vs the prior 14 and search interest is <30% of peak, take 10–15% now — viral tees cool faster than microwave pizza. Quick gut‑check the trend line here: https://trends.google.com. @alloc_june do you have size‑level ROS; if tails are bloated, mark only laggard sizes/colors first before a broad cut?
at 52% by week 5 I’d run a 48-hour micro test in 6 mid-volume doors: mark just the overstocked sizes down about 12% and track unit lift vs control; if lift clears about 1.4x, scale the cut, if not, pivot to a bundle/add-on to keep margin while you wait on the >60-day tail. @alloc_june can you spin door groups for that this week?